Ranking the top fantasy players

The 2012 regular season is exactly one week away. This is my latest Top 150, modified for value in the way I see fit. Keep in mind these rankings are primarily for standard leagues -- 12-teamers without points-per-reception scoring. Adjust where necessary.

Editor's Note: For the premier all-purpose fantasy football preparation mechanism on the world wide web, bang this link.

First Round

1. Arian Foster (ADP: 1st overall) -- Foster brings to the table elite talent and versatility, but workload and scheme separate him from McCoy and Rice. Foster has made 30 starts over the past three years, in them averaging 24.9 touches a game. McCoy has a 19.5-touch average across 34 starts. Rice has averaged 22.3 touches per start over those three seasons. The Texans have the run-heaviest offense in football, and their zone-blocking system is a well-oiled machine.

2. LeSean McCoy (ADP: 4th overall) -- McCoy doesn't get the rock quite as often as Rice or McFadden, but he's more efficient with his touches and plays in an offense I think will explode in a post-hype year. McCoy's fantasy running back ranking has improved in each of his three NFL seasons, and he's still just 24 years old. He's the only player I'd briefly consider taking over Foster.

3. Darren McFadden (ADP: 7th overall) -- Though its annual occurrence gives the mirage of a trend, DMC's injury history is rooted in bad luck. In exchange for a shot at the league-winning reward, I'm willing to make McFadden a top-three pick as an insanely talented every-down back whose path to goal-line carries is clear for the first time in his career. McFadden is so good that he could miss two games and still outscore the running back field. He is an awesome player.

4. Ray Rice (ADP: 3rd overall) -- Rice doesn't have quite the juice Foster, McCoy, and McFadden offer as a sheer running talent. But he is a durable workhorse who quietly may be headed for a career high in snaps considering the failure of a No. 2 running back to emerge in Baltimore. Third-round pick Bernard Pierce can't separate himself from UDFA Bobby Rainey.

5. Marshawn Lynch (ADP: Early 2nd round) -- Lynch's position and volume lock him into upper-echelon fantasy value, and he impressed with improved quickness and burst in August after cutting offseason weight. Despite his July DUI, Lynch no longer appears in danger of league suspension. The installation of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will make Lynch all the more dangerous. OL coach Tom Cable's zone-run scheme showed the ability to take over games last season, and a dual-threat quarterback will increase the efficacy of outside zone runs. Look for Lynch to record a career-high yards-per-carry average this season. Lynch's recent bout of back spasms does make it crucial for drafters to secure rookie handcuff Robert Turbin late.

6. Chris Johnson (ADP: 9th overall) -- I wrote a late-July column charting Johnson's 2011 snaps and detailing the collection of excuses offered for his career-worst year. I've watched his preseason and can say with certainty Johnson still possesses uncommon elusiveness and burst. I remain concerned that his heart may not stay in it as Tennessee's interior offensive line continues to allow constant penetration. He's still a monster talent slated for a monster workload, though, and can be every bit worth the risk in the middle of the first round.

7. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 6th overall) -- Megatron is the only receiver valuable enough to draft in the first round, and that's because he's head and shoulders above the rest. He's the most physically dominant wideout in the game playing in the league's pass-heaviest offense with the NFL's strongest-armed QB. For "last year's stats" guys: Johnson scored over three more fantasy points per week than the No. 2 receiver (Jordy Nelson). Megatron gives you a huge edge.

8. DeMarco Murray (ADP: 11th overall) -- Dallas' interior line is a concern, but Murray lacks any hint of competition for carries and can compensate with pure volume. Assuming he gets good luck and stays healthy, Murray is a darkhorse to lead the league in rushing attempts. The Cowboys' passing game will likely start slow with Jason Witten and Miles Austin nursing injuries. Murray can be the early-season offensive centerpiece, and his passing-game role is sure to rise.

9. Steven Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- I've found Jackson to be among the league's most impressive runners entering the final week of preseason. Having shed at least ten pounds, S-Jax has displayed improved quickness and speed while losing the "hop-step" behind the line of scrimmage he bad-habited even in his prime. Jeff Fisher is going to run the ball early and often in St. Louis. I think Jackson may well approach the 379 touches Fisher gave Eddie George in his own age-29 season. I have a first-round fantasy grade on S-Jax, but he can be had in the second.

10. Jamaal Charles (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- The Texans tied the Broncos for the 2011 league lead in rushing attempts. Denver will be a pass-first offense as Peyton Manning replaces Tim Tebow, and Kansas City now may be Houston's most viable competitor for the NFL's run-heaviest team. Workload should not be a major issue for Charles, who has avoided training-camp setbacks following last September's ACL tear while rediscovering pre-injury explosion and moves. Through three exhibition games, J.C. is averaging 5.08 yards a carry and 6.06 yards per touch.

11. Jimmy Graham (ADP: 13th overall) -- The first-round quarterback argument applies much more smoothly to tight ends. For the last-year's-stats crowd, Gronk scored nearly six more points per week than the No. 3 tight end. Graham, who finished second, scored 2.5 more points per week than No. 3. These tight ends tilt weekly scoring in a particular owner's favor and are unto a tier of their own. I like Graham to outscore Gronkowski ever so slightly because he's the clear-cut No. 1 option in his offense and blocks less. They are both late first-round picks.

12. Rob Gronkowski (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Barring injury, Gronkowski and Graham's 2011 catch and yardage totals are reliable barometers as to their 2012 production. Aside from perhaps Gronk's TDs, I don't think there will be dramatic downturn from either of their final-year stats. I think Antonio Gates has an outside chance to approach Gronk and Graham's catches and yards, and Aaron Hernandez, Jermichael Finley, and perhaps Vernon Davis will at least keep you competitive. But Gronk and Graham are weekly matchup tilters and every bit worth top-12 picks.

Second Round

13. Ryan Mathews (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fantasy footballers have every right to be shaken by Mathews' fractured collarbone considering his past durability woes. But the facts of the matter are it was a hard-luck injury, and Mathews is expected to miss no more than two games. Mathews was a top-seven weekly running back scorer with Mike Tolbert in the 2011 picture and won't struggle for top-five per-week statistics with Tolbert gone to Carolina. Commonly available throughout the second round of drafts, Mathews is a value pick anywhere beyond the top 14.

14. Julio Jones (ADP: 15th overall) -- If any receiver can give Calvin Johnson a run for the 2012 fantasy scoring lead, Jones is the NFL's best bet as a freakish talent becoming the featured player in a pass-first, up-tempo offense. Julio is going to shred defenses this season. Through roughly six preseason quarters, Jones has 13 catches for 240 yards and a touchdown.

15. Fred Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Jackson isn't a "sexy" pick as a 31-year-old running back who plays in Buffalo. But the preseason has shown he remains locked in as the featured runner ahead of C.J. Spiller. Chan Gailey's Pistol Spread offense floods the field with four and five receivers, creating running lanes. F-Jax should be secure as a top-12 fantasy back.

16. Matt Forte (ADP: 10th overall) -- The No. 10 fantasy pick seems rich for a back who never got goal-line carries in the first place, and now threatens to lose precious open-field touches to Michael Bush. The Bears may look to "preserve" Forte a bit after committing big money to him.

17. Doug Martin (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- I've viewed each of Martin and LeGarrette Blount's August snaps, and there is no question that the rookie brings more to the table in every facet of the game. The Bucs know it, giving Martin six full possessions as the every-down back in their third preseason game, while Blount played a series. At worst, Martin will open the year as a 14-18 touch-per-week RB2 in Greg Schiano's run-first, smash-mouth offense. By October, Martin should be handling the ball 20-plus times a game. He is way better than Blount. RG Davin Joseph's year-ending knee injury is only a slight concern. While Joseph has a reputation as a mauler, Pro Football Focus graded him 68th out of 78 qualifying guards in run blocking last year.

18. Dez Bryant (ADP: Early 4th round) -- I think Julio has the best shot at unseating Calvin for the receiver fantasy scoring lead. I think Dez is the best bet to challenge for Johnson's receiving touchdown crown. Particularly with Jason Witten (spleen) and Miles Austin (hamstring) nursing worrisome injuries, Bryant is headed for a target-heavy breakout year. I recently bumped Bryant ahead of Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald as the No. 3 receiver behind Megatron and Jones.

19. Andre Johnson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- This guy was a first-round pick last year. Johnson's 12 missed games over the past two seasons combined with an early-camp groin injury appear to have sunk his Average Draft Position, making him a value pick. He's lost nothing off his fastball, evidenced by three 90-plus yard efforts among his last four "real" games and preseason circus grabs in double coverage. Matt Schaub's surgical August instills even more confidence.

20. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fitz drafters and keeper-league owners need John Skelton to win Arizona's quarterback job. The Cardinals' signal caller must accomplish two tasks: 1) Stand tall as his pocket inevitably collapses behind a sieve of an offensive line, and 2) Get the ball to Fitzgerald. When Skelton played more extensively in 2011 games, Fitz averaged 94 yards per contest. His per-game average fell to 82 yards with Kevin Kolb under center.

21. A.J. Green (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Andy Dalton's rough preseason is cause for some pause, but Green is dynamic enough to be quarterback-proof. Green can "go get" poorly placed passes, and Dalton showed a willingness in August to throw it to him up for grabs. Green is a sneaky candidate to lead the league in targets. The Bengals really have no one else.

22. Antonio Gates (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Fantasy owners should wait until the third round to even begin considering Gates in light of his mid fourth-round Average Draft Position, but I'm confident he'll meet expectations and then some. Philip Rivers has lost something off his deep ball, and Gates is still capable of dominating underneath. I expect him to lead San Diego in pass targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and to rank third among fantasy tight ends.

23. Hakeem Nicks (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Even after Victor Cruz's breakout year, Nicks is the Giants' best receiver. I think he's a value pick at his current ADP. His spring foot injury no longer an issue, Nicks has resumed practicing in 11-on-11s and will be 100 percent for Week 1.

24. Adrian Peterson (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Peterson's rehab has proceeded smoothly by all accounts, but I remain skeptical that he stands any chance of living up to his early to mid-round-two Average Draft Position coming off ACL and MCL tears with damage to the meniscuses. He's someone I'd let another owner draft. Peterson won't be a full-time back early in the season even if he's active for games, and the possibility of setbacks remains as he begins to face contact. I think he'll be a drain on your early-year starting lineup while sharing time with Toby Gerhart.

The 2012 regular season is exactly one week away. This is my latest Top 150, modified for value in the way I see fit. Keep in mind these rankings are primarily for standard leagues -- 12-teamers without points-per-reception scoring. Adjust where necessary.

Editor's Note: For the premier all-purpose fantasy football preparation mechanism on the world wide web, bang this link.

First Round

1. Arian Foster (ADP: 1st overall) -- Foster brings to the table elite talent and versatility, but workload and scheme separate him from McCoy and Rice. Foster has made 30 starts over the past three years, in them averaging 24.9 touches a game. McCoy has a 19.5-touch average across 34 starts. Rice has averaged 22.3 touches per start over those three seasons. The Texans have the run-heaviest offense in football, and their zone-blocking system is a well-oiled machine.

2. LeSean McCoy (ADP: 4th overall) -- McCoy doesn't get the rock quite as often as Rice or McFadden, but he's more efficient with his touches and plays in an offense I think will explode in a post-hype year. McCoy's fantasy running back ranking has improved in each of his three NFL seasons, and he's still just 24 years old. He's the only player I'd briefly consider taking over Foster.

3. Darren McFadden (ADP: 7th overall) -- Though its annual occurrence gives the mirage of a trend, DMC's injury history is rooted in bad luck. In exchange for a shot at the league-winning reward, I'm willing to make McFadden a top-three pick as an insanely talented every-down back whose path to goal-line carries is clear for the first time in his career. McFadden is so good that he could miss two games and still outscore the running back field. He is an awesome player.

4. Ray Rice (ADP: 3rd overall) -- Rice doesn't have quite the juice Foster, McCoy, and McFadden offer as a sheer running talent. But he is a durable workhorse who quietly may be headed for a career high in snaps considering the failure of a No. 2 running back to emerge in Baltimore. Third-round pick Bernard Pierce can't separate himself from UDFA Bobby Rainey.

5. Marshawn Lynch (ADP: Early 2nd round) -- Lynch's position and volume lock him into upper-echelon fantasy value, and he impressed with improved quickness and burst in August after cutting offseason weight. Despite his July DUI, Lynch no longer appears in danger of league suspension. The installation of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will make Lynch all the more dangerous. OL coach Tom Cable's zone-run scheme showed the ability to take over games last season, and a dual-threat quarterback will increase the efficacy of outside zone runs. Look for Lynch to record a career-high yards-per-carry average this season. Lynch's recent bout of back spasms does make it crucial for drafters to secure rookie handcuff Robert Turbin late.

6. Chris Johnson (ADP: 9th overall) -- I wrote a late-July column charting Johnson's 2011 snaps and detailing the collection of excuses offered for his career-worst year. I've watched his preseason and can say with certainty Johnson still possesses uncommon elusiveness and burst. I remain concerned that his heart may not stay in it as Tennessee's interior offensive line continues to allow constant penetration. He's still a monster talent slated for a monster workload, though, and can be every bit worth the risk in the middle of the first round.

7. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 6th overall) -- Megatron is the only receiver valuable enough to draft in the first round, and that's because he's head and shoulders above the rest. He's the most physically dominant wideout in the game playing in the league's pass-heaviest offense with the NFL's strongest-armed QB. For "last year's stats" guys: Johnson scored over three more fantasy points per week than the No. 2 receiver (Jordy Nelson). Megatron gives you a huge edge.

8. DeMarco Murray (ADP: 11th overall) -- Dallas' interior line is a concern, but Murray lacks any hint of competition for carries and can compensate with pure volume. Assuming he gets good luck and stays healthy, Murray is a darkhorse to lead the league in rushing attempts. The Cowboys' passing game will likely start slow with Jason Witten and Miles Austin nursing injuries. Murray can be the early-season offensive centerpiece, and his passing-game role is sure to rise.

9. Steven Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- I've found Jackson to be among the league's most impressive runners entering the final week of preseason. Having shed at least ten pounds, S-Jax has displayed improved quickness and speed while losing the "hop-step" behind the line of scrimmage he bad-habited even in his prime. Jeff Fisher is going to run the ball early and often in St. Louis. I think Jackson may well approach the 379 touches Fisher gave Eddie George in his own age-29 season. I have a first-round fantasy grade on S-Jax, but he can be had in the second.

10. Jamaal Charles (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- The Texans tied the Broncos for the 2011 league lead in rushing attempts. Denver will be a pass-first offense as Peyton Manning replaces Tim Tebow, and Kansas City now may be Houston's most viable competitor for the NFL's run-heaviest team. Workload should not be a major issue for Charles, who has avoided training-camp setbacks following last September's ACL tear while rediscovering pre-injury explosion and moves. Through three exhibition games, J.C. is averaging 5.08 yards a carry and 6.06 yards per touch.

11. Jimmy Graham (ADP: 13th overall) -- The first-round quarterback argument applies much more smoothly to tight ends. For the last-year's-stats crowd, Gronk scored nearly six more points per week than the No. 3 tight end. Graham, who finished second, scored 2.5 more points per week than No. 3. These tight ends tilt weekly scoring in a particular owner's favor and are unto a tier of their own. I like Graham to outscore Gronkowski ever so slightly because he's the clear-cut No. 1 option in his offense and blocks less. They are both late first-round picks.

12. Rob Gronkowski (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Barring injury, Gronkowski and Graham's 2011 catch and yardage totals are reliable barometers as to their 2012 production. Aside from perhaps Gronk's TDs, I don't think there will be dramatic downturn from either of their final-year stats. I think Antonio Gates has an outside chance to approach Gronk and Graham's catches and yards, and Aaron Hernandez, Jermichael Finley, and perhaps Vernon Davis will at least keep you competitive. But Gronk and Graham are weekly matchup tilters and every bit worth top-12 picks.

Second Round

13. Ryan Mathews (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fantasy footballers have every right to be shaken by Mathews' fractured collarbone considering his past durability woes. But the facts of the matter are it was a hard-luck injury, and Mathews is expected to miss no more than two games. Mathews was a top-seven weekly running back scorer with Mike Tolbert in the 2011 picture and won't struggle for top-five per-week statistics with Tolbert gone to Carolina. Commonly available throughout the second round of drafts, Mathews is a value pick anywhere beyond the top 14.

14. Julio Jones (ADP: 15th overall) -- If any receiver can give Calvin Johnson a run for the 2012 fantasy scoring lead, Jones is the NFL's best bet as a freakish talent becoming the featured player in a pass-first, up-tempo offense. Julio is going to shred defenses this season. Through roughly six preseason quarters, Jones has 13 catches for 240 yards and a touchdown.

15. Fred Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Jackson isn't a "sexy" pick as a 31-year-old running back who plays in Buffalo. But the preseason has shown he remains locked in as the featured runner ahead of C.J. Spiller. Chan Gailey's Pistol Spread offense floods the field with four and five receivers, creating running lanes. F-Jax should be secure as a top-12 fantasy back.

16. Matt Forte (ADP: 10th overall) -- The No. 10 fantasy pick seems rich for a back who never got goal-line carries in the first place, and now threatens to lose precious open-field touches to Michael Bush. The Bears may look to "preserve" Forte a bit after committing big money to him.

17. Doug Martin (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- I've viewed each of Martin and LeGarrette Blount's August snaps, and there is no question that the rookie brings more to the table in every facet of the game. The Bucs know it, giving Martin six full possessions as the every-down back in their third preseason game, while Blount played a series. At worst, Martin will open the year as a 14-18 touch-per-week RB2 in Greg Schiano's run-first, smash-mouth offense. By October, Martin should be handling the ball 20-plus times a game. He is way better than Blount. RG Davin Joseph's year-ending knee injury is only a slight concern. While Joseph has a reputation as a mauler, Pro Football Focus graded him 68th out of 78 qualifying guards in run blocking last year.

18. Dez Bryant (ADP: Early 4th round) -- I think Julio has the best shot at unseating Calvin for the receiver fantasy scoring lead. I think Dez is the best bet to challenge for Johnson's receiving touchdown crown. Particularly with Jason Witten (spleen) and Miles Austin (hamstring) nursing worrisome injuries, Bryant is headed for a target-heavy breakout year. I recently bumped Bryant ahead of Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald as the No. 3 receiver behind Megatron and Jones.

19. Andre Johnson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- This guy was a first-round pick last year. Johnson's 12 missed games over the past two seasons combined with an early-camp groin injury appear to have sunk his Average Draft Position, making him a value pick. He's lost nothing off his fastball, evidenced by three 90-plus yard efforts among his last four "real" games and preseason circus grabs in double coverage. Matt Schaub's surgical August instills even more confidence.

20. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fitz drafters and keeper-league owners need John Skelton to win Arizona's quarterback job. The Cardinals' signal caller must accomplish two tasks: 1) Stand tall as his pocket inevitably collapses behind a sieve of an offensive line, and 2) Get the ball to Fitzgerald. When Skelton played more extensively in 2011 games, Fitz averaged 94 yards per contest. His per-game average fell to 82 yards with Kevin Kolb under center.

21. A.J. Green (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Andy Dalton's rough preseason is cause for some pause, but Green is dynamic enough to be quarterback-proof. Green can "go get" poorly placed passes, and Dalton showed a willingness in August to throw it to him up for grabs. Green is a sneaky candidate to lead the league in targets. The Bengals really have no one else.

22. Antonio Gates (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Fantasy owners should wait until the third round to even begin considering Gates in light of his mid fourth-round Average Draft Position, but I'm confident he'll meet expectations and then some. Philip Rivers has lost something off his deep ball, and Gates is still capable of dominating underneath. I expect him to lead San Diego in pass targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and to rank third among fantasy tight ends.

23. Hakeem Nicks (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Even after Victor Cruz's breakout year, Nicks is the Giants' best receiver. I think he's a value pick at his current ADP. His spring foot injury no longer an issue, Nicks has resumed practicing in 11-on-11s and will be 100 percent for Week 1.

24. Adrian Peterson (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Peterson's rehab has proceeded smoothly by all accounts, but I remain skeptical that he stands any chance of living up to his early to mid-round-two Average Draft Position coming off ACL and MCL tears with damage to the meniscuses. He's someone I'd let another owner draft. Peterson won't be a full-time back early in the season even if he's active for games, and the possibility of setbacks remains as he begins to face contact. I think he'll be a drain on your early-year starting lineup while sharing time with Toby Gerhart.

Third Round

25. Cam Newton (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Forget, for a minute, last year's rushing TDs and whether they're "repeatable." Newton is the most physically dominant young player in football, and I think it's only a matter of time (this year or next) before he takes over as the overall fantasy scoring leader and consensus No. 1 pick. Perhaps I'm a year early, but I'll be betting on this player going forward. I like Cam as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback, passing Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.

26. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 2nd overall) -- Rodgers is the best player in the NFL. I have a third-round fantasy grade on him because he plays a deep position in a passing league where each year numerous passers emerge from the middle- and late-round woodwork to score at "elite" rates. I think Newton, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Stafford, and Ryan will provide first-tier 2012 production. I'd much rather grab Vick or Ryan while trying for this year's Stafford or Newton later in the draft than blow my early-round wad on a quarterback. It's basic Supply & Demand.

27. Tom Brady (ADP: 5th overall) -- I was asked recently which quarterback I think offers the highest upside at quarterback, which the highest "floor," and which the best combination of upside and floor. My answer to the latter two queries was Brady. I answered Newton to the first.

28. Drew Brees (ADP: 8th overall) -- Seven straight seasons of top-six quarterback stats lock in Brees as an elite producer even without Robert Meachem and Carl Nicks. The additional loss of Sean Payton is not a concern for Brees' fantasy outlook. OC Pete Carmichael returns, and the 2011 offense averaged 36 more yards and over seven more points per game with Carmichael calling plays. Carmichael did so from Week 7 on, after Payton blew out his knee on the sideline.

29. Michael Vick (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Vick's ADP has been torpedoed by a perfect storm of factors. One legion of owners simply does not believe in Vick. Never did. Another legion bought on Vick last season, and came away disappointed. A third legion has watched this year's preseason games. Vick got nicked up in each of the first two weeks, so he obviously can't stay healthy. Aggressive, forward-looking fantasy owners will pounce on Vick in the third or fourth round. He's a weekly difference maker, and he is the No. 1 value pick quarterback in 2012 drafts.

30. Matthew Stafford (ADP: 12th overall) -- I banged the table for Stafford as a value pick in 2011 drafts, and he rewarded "risk" takers with a top-five quarterback season at the cost of a seventh-round pick. Now a full year removed from injury, Stafford's ADP takes him off my radar. Fantasy drafts are a value game, and I'd rather target Vick or Matt Ryan several rounds later.

31. Percy Harvin (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Chris Wesseling recently suggested that the Vikings' 2012 offense could be a sneaky goldmine for fantasy value. My offseason game reviews of Christian Ponder uncovered a better-than-advertised arm, and Harvin was an absolute machine after Ponder took the reins as a rookie, averaging well over 100 yards per game with seven TDs in the final seven weeks. Harvin is being drafted as a WR2, but he's the rare receiver who can score like a WR1 in both PPR and non-PPR formats. Ponder is willing to force feed him the football.

32. Brandon Lloyd (ADP: Late 4th round) -- The Patriots' offense will go deep more as Josh McDaniels replaces Bill O'Brien, and Lloyd will benefit from single coverage while defenses key up to stop Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Welker. Lloyd's Average Draft Position has risen with Rotoworld pumping him up, but he's still worth it in the mid to late fourth round. He'll be drafted as a WR2 and score like a WR1. I don't find Lloyd's quiet preseason (three targets, one catch) to be a concern because New England clearly has not taken these exhibition games seriously.

33. Steve Smith (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Defenses schemed to take away Smith down last season's stretch, but it didn't end well for opponents. Carolina won four of its final six games -- three by blowout -- while playing playoff teams Detroit and Atlanta tough. Teams will have to figure out different ways to defend this offense, which ranked seventh in the NFL in 2011 and looks like a top-five unit for 2012. Smith returns as the featured player in Rob Chudzinski's vertical scheme.

34. Jordy Nelson (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- As alluded to previously, only Calvin Johnson scored more fantasy points among receivers than Nelson in 2011. While Nelson's efficiency stats were seemingly flukily off the charts, I think he has legitimately developed into a top-ten NFL wide receiver and will continue to outscore teammate Greg Jennings. Rodgers shows impressive trust in Nelson by throwing him the ball in up-for-grabs situations. I think he's every bit worth his ADP.

35. Brandon Marshall (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Hype was heavy on Marshall after a pair of long catches in Chicago's second preseason game, but there are a few things to remember. His value has always been superior in PPR compared to standard because he struggles in the red zone and doesn't go deep. I think Marshall is being a bit overrated in TD- and yard-heavy leagues.

36. Jeremy Maclin (ADP: Late 5th round) -- In another case of fantasy leaguers relying on last year's stats, Maclin is shaping up as one of the premier value picks at receiver. We're quick to forget he had the look of a future All Pro in 2010, before Maclin's 2011 performance was affected by mysterious offseason illness, leading to significant weight loss. Maclin is Vick's best red-zone target, and clearly a more complete wideout than DeSean Jackson. He has a boatload of upside.

Fourth Round

37. Aaron Hernandez (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Reports out of Foxboro that Hernandez may emerge as Tom Brady's No. 1 pass option are promising, and there are few tight ends with higher "floors." When you get past Graham, Gronk, and Gates in your draft, Hernandez at the very least keeps you competitive week to week with a high volume of touches and plenty of playmaking ability in a high-scoring offense. If the beat writers' suggestions are correct, Hernandez will do much more than that. Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis are next in line. Finley's on-field play can be maddeningly inconsistent, and San Francisco's run-first philosophy holds Davis back.

38. Antonio Brown (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- The game tape shows Brown to be not as dynamic as Mike Wallace, and certainly not of similar ilk in the minds of opposing defensive coordinators. But we are projecting stats here, not debating the on-field impact of double and triple teams. The end of Wallace's holdout is good news for Brown's fantasy outlook. Wallace will continue to command heavy coverage while Brown guts secondaries inside the numbers. I really like Brown as a WR2 in what may be a more pass-happy Pittsburgh offense than people expect. Brown has showed off his own impressive talent with 11 preseason receptions for 204 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 18.5 yards per catch.

39. Roddy White (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- The fantasy owners still drafting White in the second and third rounds haven't paid enough attention. While White should continue to see a healthy dose of targets in Atlanta's pass-heavy offense, even Roddy himself admits Julio Jones will be the featured player in Dirk Koetter's attack. Jones is a WR1. White is a middling WR2 who doesn't provide enough value to support his lofty late-August ADP.

40. Marques Colston (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Colston missed two games last year and still ranked 11th among fantasy receivers. He was eighth in wideout scoring per game. Those are legitimate WR1 numbers. Though Jimmy Graham has overtaken him as the Saints' top receiver, New Orleans' pass-happy attack allows plenty of volume for two upper-echelon fantasy producers. Be it with PPR or non-PPR settings, I think you're in great shape if you secure Colston as a WR2.

41. Victor Cruz (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- If Cruz has any edge on teammate Nicks, it is superior versatility. Cruz can play X, Z, and slot receiver, running a diverse and full route tree in OC Kevin Gilbride's vertical offense. Nicks primarily sticks to the sideline, securing just about everything thrown his way with body control and massive mitts. I think Nicks will score more like the WR1 this year, but Cruz won't be too far off. He's another terrific WR2 regardless of format.

42. Greg Jennings (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- A precision route runner who moves around the formation more than you might think, Jennings was a top-ten receiver before succumbing to a regular season-ending knee injury after 13 games in 2011. In these rankings, I gave Jordy Nelson the slight edge on Jennings in 2012 projected scoring. But I really think it could go either way.

43. Matt Ryan (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Ryan's ADP has risen on the heels of a monster August, although he still offers value in the fourth round as other quarterbacks primed to score at elite rates irresponsibly fly off the board in the top-24 picks. The Falcons are truly committed to an up-tempo, high-octane passing attack this season, and they have weapons to pull it off with Jones and White outside. Tony Gonzalez remains an effective possession and red-zone target.

44. Eric Decker (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Chris Wesseling has banged the table for Decker over Demaryius Thomas since long before camp, and I'm jumping on board after viewing each of the Broncos' three preseason games. Thomas is still learning to run pass patterns, while Decker already knows how and is getting open at will. I think he can be a target monster this year.

45. Demaryius Thomas (ADP: Late 5th round) -- I still love Thomas, though. An incredibly tightly wound receiver at 6-foot-3 and over 230 pounds, Thomas refuses to go down on first contact and his rapport with Peyton Manning should grow by the week. Based on physical tools and skill set, it's certainly fair to argue that Thomas offers superior upside to Decker. I think Demaryius' baseline is back-end WR2 stats. He looks to me like a "safe" fifth-round fantasy pick.

46. Darren Sproles (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- It's still difficult to grasp relying on a standard-league back as an every-week starter when he's not even a lock for 100-plus carries. A very new-wave player, Sproles qualifies because he catches so many passes and is second in line for red-zone work in New Orleans' backfield, essentially rotating there with Mark Ingram. Receptions gain more yards than rushing attempts, anyway, and Sproles has a "floor" of around 6-7 touchdowns.

47. Dwayne Bowe (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Whereas Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Wallace's lengthier holdouts cost them significant study time in new offenses, Bowe reported to the Chiefs in a timely enough manner to play snaps in a preseason game and get 23 days in OC Brian Daboll's system before the opener. An improved Kansas City running game will free him up more, and Bowe has been a top-20 fantasy wideout in each of his last three healthy seasons.

48. Wes Welker (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Welker remains an elite PPR receiver capable of catching 100 balls, but don't expect a stat line like last year's with Hernandez earning a bigger role and Lloyd commanding targets on the perimeter. Outgoing OC Bill O'Brien's horizontal passing game played to the strengths of Welker. Josh McDaniels will throw downfield more. Look for plenty of receptions out of the slot receiver, but considerable drops in touchdowns and yards.

Fifth Round

49. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Jones-Drew is still being drafted as if he's going to play 16 games as a feature back. The history of holdout running backs suggests there's little chance of Jones-Drew living up to a second-round fantasy stab, and Rashad Jennings' impressive preseason bodes especially poorly for MJD's odds of seeing a workload remotely resembling last year's. There is a ton of risk in drafting Jones-Drew, and I don't think the possible reward is worth it. ESPN's Adam Schefter went so far Tuesday morning as to suggest Jones-Drew's holdout will last into the regular season, at least costing him Week 1. While his ADP has dipped a bit recently, I wouldn't even consider taking Jones-Drew before round five.

50. Trent Richardson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Throw out for a moment the fact that Richardson's knee problems are recurring. His absence from most of training camp and the entire preseason almost certainly removes Richardson from passing-down consideration, and there are no guarantees on his early-season, early-down workload, either. I love Richardson's ability and think his offensive line is capable of plowing holes, but I don't think he's going to get the ball more than 16 times a game. He's an early fifth-round fantasy pick to me. A dicey, limited RB2.

51. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP: Early 4th round) -- David Wilson's preseason buzz has been hot and heavy, and it's deserved with 170 total yards on 24 touches. While I believe Bradshaw is obviously overvalued at his average draft slot, I still think he's the back to own in New York and would feel okay about him as my RB2. Wilson needs a Bradshaw injury just to touch flex value.

52. Stevan Ridley (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- I must not have been the only one watching the Patriots' third preseason game Saturday night against the Bucs. Ridley's ADP has since leaped from the mid-seventh round into the mid sixth. Ridley dominated first-team work with the Tom Brady group, piling up 16 carries for 87 yards (5.4 YPC) and multiple red-zone chances, including a goal-line score. He also caught three passes. Meanwhile, Shane Vereen exited with a foot injury. Ridley's week-to-week consistency may sting some during the season as the Patriots adapt their rushing attack to account for opponents based on game plans, but I think Ridley is going to score a lot of touchdowns and be much more effective than BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the same early-down plowhorse role. Ridley's violent, decisive running style is very easy to like.

53. Mike Wallace (ADP: Early 5th round) -- I love Wallace's talent. I think he is better than Antonio Brown. But after missing Todd Haley's offensive install by holding out of OTAs and the first month of camp, Wallace left himself 11 days to learn Haley's system on the fly. And how long will it take for the Steelers to implement playcalls on which Wallace is Big Ben's first read? My concern is Wallace will open the year as a clear-out receiver, running deep to take coverage while Brown racks up stats underneath. I'm worried Wallace will be very inconsistent. I hope I'm wrong.

54. Vincent Jackson (ADP: Early 6th round) -- The emergence of a productive running game in Tampa will be crucial to Jackson's fantasy value because the Buccaneers have no other offensive weapons who command coverage. He's not in San Diego with Gates anymore. I am optimistic Martin will spark the rushing attack, though, and was impressed by V-Jax's preseason rapport with Josh Freeman. Jackson was clearly Freeman's go-to guy in the third exhibition week.

55. Kevin Smith (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Smith's preseason ankle injury is a reminder that durability is an ongoing concern. But he is a terrific fit for the Lions' passing-based offense and will play heavy doses of snaps so long as he's healthy. I'd take Smith in the late fifth or sixth round and feel good about him as my RB2. I'm really not worried about Mikel Leshoure.

56. Willis McGahee (ADP: Late 4th round) -- I did offseason game reviews on Demaryius Thomas and the Denver offense, and McGahee's burst and acceleration jumped out to me on tape. His 2011 production was not simply the product of read-option plays. McGahee is still an effective runner, and it's continued to show up in preseason games. His ADP is just a bit too rich.

57. Torrey Smith (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- Credit Pat Daugherty (@RotoPat) for being first to the dance on Smith. The Ravens have designs on implementing a no-huddle offense that will increase passing volume and sheer offensive snaps, and Smith made tremendous strides as a route runner in his first full NFL offseason. His eight catches for 103 yards in two quarters during Baltimore's third preseason game are a sign of things to come. Smith is poised for a big leap.

58. Frank Gore (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- I'd rather take Kendall Hunter in the 12th round. Gore's passing-game role has evaporated in Jim Harbaugh's offense (17 catches in '11), and he's slated to lose goal-line work to Brandon Jacobs while Hunter and LaMichael James steal open-field snaps. I think Gore has a shot at RB2 value for the season's first month and a half, but expect his field time to dwindle down the stretch with Hunter eventually taking over as lead back.

59. Stevie Johnson (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- Johnson is the featured receiver in a passing-friendly offense that floods the field with wideouts. Chan Gailey's Pistol Spread makes the No. 1 guy awfully difficult to double team. Johnson also might be the premier route runner in football. I like Johnson as more of an elite WR3 than WR2, though. He's not a huge yardage or TD guy.

60. Reggie Wayne (ADP: Late 6th round) -- I like Wayne as a PPR-league WR2 if Austin Collie doesn't receive medical clearance. If Collie does, I'm downgrading Wayne by quite a bit.

Sixth Round

61. Jermichael Finley (ADP: Early 6th round) -- Finley's god-given talent and high-octane offense combine to give him plenty of on-paper fantasy appeal, but it would have been nice to see him light up some preseason games for confidence's sake after a miserable 2011 season. I'd much rather have Graham, Gronk, Hernandez, or Gates. As much as there's a big drop after the first two tight ends, it gets even bigger after the top four. You need to get a good one this year.

62. Vernon Davis (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- Davis is a better player than Finley and could be grouped with the four "elite" tight ends if he played in a more fantasy-friendly passing offense.

63. Reggie Bush (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Bush's Average Draft Position is much too rich for my taste. I don't think he'll come close to last year's workload in Joe Philbin's committee-based running offense. Rookie Lamar Miller intrigues me more and will cost you far less on draft day.

64. Peyton Hillis (ADP: Early 6th round) -- Charles is too good and running too well for the Chiefs to give Hillis more touches, but the more powerful half of Kansas City's Thunder and Lightning backfield is an intriguing flex option. The Chiefs will run a ton, and Hillis will score TDs.

65. DeSean Jackson (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Jackson will give you weekly big-play potential, but I don't think his consistency will improve much. He's a WR3 in a field full of them.

66. Michael Turner (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Turner is a "sleeper" to be listed among Friday's final Falcons cuts. He was completely ineffective in three preseason games (18 carries, 49 yards, 2.7 YPC) and is fast losing value to a team that will no longer lean on its run game. Turner is also owed a non-guaranteed $5 million base salary.

67. Kenny Britt (ADP: Late 7th round) -- I'm really liking this ADP on Britt. While he is certain to miss time, Britt will be an every-week starter once the Titans remove his early-season training wheels. And Jake Locker helps Britt because he can throw the football down the field.

68. Ryan Williams (ADP: Late 7th round) -- I like Williams to lead Arizona's backfield in touches. He's better in the passing game than Beanie Wells, and his knee has been healthier for a longer period of time. The fact that Williams avoided setbacks after a patellar tendon rupture is promising. I was also impressed watching him in preseason games. Williams has showed cutting ability and some acceleration, averaging 5.0 yards per carry with a goal-line score in August. The Cards may have to lean on their running game this year due to the NFL's worst pass protection.

69. Miles Austin (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Austin's ADP is reasonable because he can score like a borderline WR1 when healthy. I just don't know whether he's going to be 100 percent this year after missing nearly a month of training camp with recurring hamstring problems.

70. Jonathan Stewart (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Stewart dodged a bullet after going down with an ankle "tweak" in Carolina's third preseason game. I'm not concerned with his durability, but the Panthers' backfield was muddled last year and has become even more so with the addition of Mike Tolbert. I do not consider Stewart an RB2, and wouldn't feel great about him as my flex, either. Of course, he'd be a top-10 weekly running back play if DeAngelo Williams went down.

71. Mark Ingram (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Ingram interests me as a standard-league RB2/flex because he's looked awfully good in preseason action while retaining a stranglehold on red-zone carries in New Orleans' high-scoring offense. Ingram disappointed a ton of owners last season, keeping the Average Draft Position very low on a legitimate threat for 10-12 rushing TDs.

72. Pierre Garcon (ADP: Early 7th round) -- If preseason and the history of Shanahan offenses are any indication, "X" receiver Garcon will be RG3's first read on virtually every passing play in 2012. Garcon is error prone, but he's also a sleeper to finish top-ten in targets. Considering cost and projected consistency, I'd rather have Garcon as my WR3 than DeSean Jackson.

Seventh Round

73. Ben Tate (ADP: Mid 7th round) -- I love Tate because he's a viable flex play against soft run defenses and a locked-and-loaded RB1 if Arian Foster goes down. I'd start thinking about drafting Tate in the sixth round. He brings much more to the table than your typical "handcuff."

74. Rashad Jennings (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Jennings is locked in as Jacksonville's Week 1 starter, although he'll face Minnesota's annually tough run defense and gets the Texans the following week. Jones-Drew figures to end his holdout by then. I've always held Jennings in high regard as a three-down-capable back, but he may need an MJD injury to be more than a flex play.

75. Donald Brown (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Brown is one of the most overdrafted players in 2012 fantasy leagues. He's much more change-of-pace than feature back, and figures to open the season rotating snaps with Vick Ballard and passing-down specialist Mewelde Moore. Avoid.

76. Greg Little (ADP: Mid 10th round)

77. Tony Romo (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Romo's Average Draft Position was screaming toward the fourth round early in training camp, but it's understandably cooled off with so many injuries around him. Jason Witten (spleen) is likely to miss Week 1 and may not be healthy early in the season. Miles Austin's hamstring problems are recurring. The interior of Dallas' offensive line looks worse than last year's, if that's possible. Despite last Saturday night's preseason destruction of the Rams, I wouldn't want Romo as my fantasy starter.

78. Eli Manning (ADP: Mid 5th round)

79. Philip Rivers (ADP: Early 7th round) -- I don't feel good about Rivers at all. His 2011 game tape showed possible signs of decline, and LT Jared Gaither is now tentatively expected to miss regular season action due to ongoing back problems. Rivers is the toughest pocket quarterback in football, but the Chargers' vertical scheme could hit the skids without viable pass protection. Aside from Antonio Gates, it's hard to be upbeat about this passing attack right now.

80. Denarius Moore (ADP: Mid 9th round)

81. Titus Young (ADP: Mid 7th round)

82. Toby Gerhart (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Gerhart isn't an elite talent at running back, but he churns his legs through contact, soaks up blocked yards, and has developed into a strong passing-game contributor. While everyone seems to expect the old Adrian Peterson to return, Gerhart is also an every-down back in waiting behind a starter coming off a devastating knee injury. Gerhart's Average Draft Position ought to be a lot higher than it is right now.

83. Shonn Greene (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- I mentioned the effect of a passing league on fantasy statistics in my last column's introduction. It has deepened the receiver and quarterback fields. At the same time, the passing league has allowed pass-catching running backs to lap early-down plodders, particularly those who don't play in high-scoring offenses. Shonn Greene is precisely the kind of running back to avoid in 2012 fantasy drafts. He doesn't catch passes, plays in a brutal offense, and lacks big-play ability to compensate. You're in trouble if he's your RB2.

84. Peyton Manning (ADP: Early 6th round)

Eighth Round

85. C.J. Spiller (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- I've seen Spiller ranked quite a bit higher than this, and I don't get it. He'll need another F-Jax injury to emerge as more than a weak flex option.

86. Fred Davis (ADP: Early 9th round) -- I usually recommend caution about slow preseason stats for established fantasy commodities, but Davis has been an afterthought in the Washington offense through three preseason games, catching his two targets for 16 yards. I think Pierre Garcon has a chance to be a top-ten receiver in targets, and Kyle Shanahan may run more than he has in years past. Davis can still be a back-end TE1, but I want a difference maker at tight end this season and am willing to invest a high pick.

87. Kyle Rudolph (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Rudolph's ADP is still in the flier-pick range, but he shouldn't be considered a flier anymore. If there is a late-round tight end capable of leaping into the Hernandez/Finley/Davis tier, it's the one in Minnesota. Rudolph should be Ponder's No. 1 red-zone target and No. 2 in the open field, behind Harvin. He's got a leg up on the Jared Cooks of the world as an established, every-down tight end. Rudolph isn't just a passing-down specialist.

88. Darrius Heyward-Bey (ADP: Late 8th round)

89. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: Mid 8th round)

90. Michael Bush (ADP: Mid 8th round)

91. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- The Bengals' 2011 offense preyed on weak early-season defenses before circling the drain against their tough AFC North foes. I think Cincinnati will struggle this year more than most people anticipate, to the extent that they'll often be playing from behind. That would mean more field time for Bernard Scott and third-down back Brian Leonard, and less for the one-dimensional Law Firm. Already short on running talent and completely devoid of big-play ability, Green-Ellis is an obvious "avoid" in 2012 fantasy drafts.

92. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: Mid 9th round)

93. David Wilson (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Wilson has dynamic running ability and it's shown up all preseason, but his Average Draft Position has taken him out of the mix for me. Barring injury to Ahmad Bradshaw, Wilson's upside is changeup back who doesn't play in the passing game. If Bradshaw gets hurt, Wilson would be no more than lead runner in a committee with D.J. Ware. I loved Wilson when I could get him as an RB4/5. I don't want him as my RB3.

94. Beanie Wells (ADP: Early 7th round)

95. Justin Blackmon (ADP: Early 7th round) -- His ADP has skyrocketed. Blackmon is a physical run-after-catch receiver with some Boldinian traits, but I'm hardly sold on Blaine Gabbert and there are many wideouts going later I'd prefer. Kenny Britt, Titus Young, and Denarius Moore have lower ADPs. Each of them is a better bet than Blackmon for sustained WR3 scoring.

96. Andrew Luck (ADP: Early 10th round)

Ninth Round

97. Cedric Benson (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Benson will open the season as the favorite for carries in Green Bay, but pedestrian talent and questionable scheme fit are working against him. Benson can't pass block or catch, and Packers backs must be able to play in the passing game in order to earn regular playing time. Benson may offer early-season RB2/flex value, but he'll be a liability in PPR leagues while gradually ceding snaps to Alex Green. It's worth noting that in a matter of a week, Benson's ADP has skyrocketed from round seven to five. No thanks.

98. Alfred Morris (ADP: Late 13th round) -- The guy getting carries in D.C. is going to produce, and that's Morris at the moment. He has no burst, though, and lacks talent to be a consistent scorer, let alone keep the job. Morris may prove a flash in the pan, but I still think he's worth a ninth- or tenth-round stab. He'll be a weekly 100-yard threat as long as he's getting the rock.

99. Austin Collie (ADP: Late 12th round) -- Collie's latest concussion understandably sent his ADP back into the gutter just as he was beginning to look like the best receiver value going in drafts. There are no guarantees for a player concussed four times in a 21-month span, but I still like Collie's upside at the price of a WR5. I think he can lead Indy in catches and yards if he gains medical clearance. The Colts have stated publicly that they expect Collie to be ready for Week 1.

100. Sidney Rice (ADP: Early 11th round) -- Rice's improving health means he's back in line to start on Opening Day, and Terrell Owens' release all but confirms it. Braylon Edwards and Golden Tate are competing at split end. Rice was vying with Owens at flanker, and Doug Baldwin is the slot guy. Durability remains a concern, but Rice is an every-week WR3 whenever healthy.

101. Jason Witten (ADP: Early 8th round)

102. Jay Cutler (ADP: Early 8th round)

103. Roy Helu (ADP: Early 10th round) -- Helu's bum Achilles' tendons have sent his fantasy stock spiraling, but I've paid attention to this backfield enough to know unequivocally that Helu is the best runner the Redskins have, in every single area. I'd love him as an RB4/5.

104. Jake Locker (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Locker's accuracy issues aren't going away, but he throws the football with tremendous velocity and can keep the chains moving with his legs. He's got a high ceiling for a last-ditch QB2 pick. The Titans' 2012 offense has exciting potential.

105. Robert Meachem (ADP: Mid 8th round)

106. Michael Crabtree (ADP: Mid 11th round)

107. Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: Early 9th round)

108. Kendall Wright (ADP: Early 10th round)

Tenth Round

109. Evan Royster (ADP: Late 11th round)

110. Robert Griffin III (ADP: Early 9th round)

111. Brandon LaFell (ADP: Late 10th round) -- LaFell and Legedu Naanee rotated as Carolina's No. 2 receiver in 2011, combining for a final stat line of 80/1,080/4. LaFell now has the job all to himself. While LaFell is unlikely to repeat those statistics on his own, he does offer intriguing breakout appeal in the Panthers' aggressive, vertical offense. He's an ideal WR4 pick.

112. Kendall Hunter (ADP: Late 11th round) -- Hunter has three-down tools and is second in line for work behind a fading starter in a run-first offense. If Gore goes down, Hunter is a fantasy starter, and I think he has a chance to emerge as one by midyear even without the assistance of an injury.

113. Joe Flacco (ADP: Late 10th round) -- Flacco is capable of a breakout season if arch-conservative playcaller Cam Cameron continues his use of the no-huddle offense when the real games start. In Atlanta last year, we saw coach Mike Smith put brakes on the Falcons' intent to use the no-huddle after a prolific preseason. Smith has relented this year, but will Cameron?

114. Malcom Floyd (ADP: Mid 8th round)

115. Jacob Tamme (ADP: Late 8th round)

116. Nate Washington (ADP: Early 9th round)

117. Greg Olsen (ADP: Mid 11th round)

118. Randall Cobb (ADP: Early 11th round)

119. Tony Gonzalez (ADP: Mid 9th round)

120. Anquan Boldin (ADP: Late 8th round)

Eleventh Round

121. Russell Wilson (ADP: Late 12th round -- I caught Wilson's start against Kansas City on review Sunday and have now watched all his August snaps. He plays with controlled urgency, doing everything on the football field fast and keeping defenses off balance with devastating play fakes on top of dangerous athleticism. Wilson is an accurate thrower, largely unbothered by pressure. I believe he'll be a quality rookie starter who's even better in fantasy than real life.

122. Robert Turbin (ADP: Mid 13th round) -- A steady rise. While Turbin's Utah State tape wasn't overly impressive, he's proven a sound fit for OL coach Tom Cable's zone scheme and reeled off 93 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries (6.6 YPC) in Seattle's regular season tuneup versus Kansas City's first-team defense. Turbin started the game in place of Marshawn Lynch, who's missing time with back spasms. Turbin is shaping up as a high-upside late-round RB5.

123. Lance Moore (ADP: Late 9th round)

124. Jared Cook (ADP: Mid 12th round)

125. Randy Moss (ADP: Early 10th round) -- Moss still has enough straight-line speed to threaten defenses vertically on occasion, but he's a poor fit for weak-armed Alex Smith in a run-heavy offense. News that Moss may only play 20-25 snaps per game, rotating with Mario Manningham, could lead to maddening inconsistency. I wouldn't want him on my fantasy roster.

126. Santonio Holmes (ADP: Mid 10th round)

127. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP: Late 7th round) -- Pettigrew is highly regarded in some fantasy circles as a big-name former first-round NFL pick. But he's never finished better than 11th among tight ends in fantasy scoring and puts you at a major disadvantage as more than a TE2 in standard leagues. Inconsistent and lacking big-play ability, Pettigrew won't be on any of my teams.

128. Alex Green (ADP: Undrafted) -- An October ACL tear should make most leery of Green's chances at significant 2012 fantasy impact, but he's clearly bypassed James Starks and has a leg up on Cedric Benson from the standpoint that Green excels in the passing game. The Packers are a passing team. It's not crazy to think the lead back job can be Green's by midyear.

129. Isaac Redman (ADP: Late 7th round)

130. Isaiah Pead (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Pead tumbled down my rankings after a poor preseason (25 carries, 2.0 YPC) followed by Jeff Fisher's announcement that he'd double up with seventh-rounder Daryl Washington in the event of a Steven Jackson injury. Pead has more talent than his August play suggests, but he's no longer a strong handcuff and will have little to no early-season offensive role. Pead has looked much better on kick returns than in the Rams' backfield.

131. Mike Williams (ADP: Early 11th round) -- I'd feel a lot better about Williams if I felt better about the Buccaneers' passing game. Vincent Jackson should be able to get his stats, but Josh Freeman's struggles have continued while learning new OC Mike Sullivan's offense. The Bucs will be a run-heavy team featuring Doug Martin and V-Jax. Williams may be an afterthought.

132. Matt Schaub (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Don't let his hot preseason trick you. While it's good news for the value of Andre Johnson, Schaub's fantasy ceiling is severely limited by the Texans' run-heavy ways. You want no part of him as a fantasy starter, and there are better QB2s.

Twelfth Round

133. Carson Palmer (ADP: Early 12th round)

134. LeGarrette Blount (ADP: Late 10th round)

135. Pierre Thomas (ADP: Late 11th round)

136. Bernard Scott (ADP: Undrafted)

137. Davone Bess (ADP: Undrafted)

138. Christian Ponder (ADP: Undrafted)

139. Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP: Late 12th round)

140. Jermaine Gresham (ADP: Early 11th round)

141. Alshon Jeffery (ADP: Mid 11th round)

142. Braylon Edwards (ADP: Undrafted)

143. Danny Amendola (ADP: Late 9th round)

144. Lamar Miller (ADP: Undrafted)

Thirteenth Round

145. Felix Jones (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Jones secured his roster spot with a solid showing in the third preseason game (eight touches, 57 yards), but he's been all but deleted from the first-team offense. He's a dicey handcuff for entrenched every-down back DeMarco Murray.

146. Vick Ballard (ADP: Undrafted)

147. Josh Freeman (ADP: Early 12th round) -- Freeman was awful last season and has been worse in August. I still think he can be a franchise quarterback after a full season or two in Mike Sullivan's offense, but I wanted to see signs of improvement to endorse him as a QB2 for 2012. Greg Schiano's run-first offense pops Freeman's balloon.

148. Owen Daniels (ADP: Late 13th round) -- If you're into drafting TE2s -- and plenty of savvy owners are not -- look elsewhere. Daniels is going to lose targets this season to summer star Garrett Graham, and Houston's run-first offense puts a low ceiling on his fantasy appeal.

149. Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: Early 14th round) -- Sanders would have been a lot more intriguing had Mike Wallace held out into the regular season. With Wallace caving, Sanders will return to the slot in Todd Haley's offense, operating as a part-time player. He's still a worthy WR5 who could ascend to every-week WR3 production if Wallace or Antonio Brown were to get injured.

150. Mikel Leshoure (ADP: Mid 10th round) -- He'll have to do better than five preseason carries for one yard to convince me he's w

Source: http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/41232/57/goal-line-stand

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